Original Research

Comparative performance of cardiovascular risk prediction models in people living with HIV

Irtiza S. Tahir, Alinda G. Vos, Johanna A.A. Damen, Roos E. Barth, Hugo A. Tempelman, Diederick E. Grobbee, Karine Scheuermaier, Willem D.F. Venter, Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch
Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine | Vol 23, No 1 | a1395 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/sajhivmed.v23i1.1395 | © 2022 Irtiza S. Tahir, Alinda G. Vos, Johanna A.A. Damen, Roos E. Barth, Hugo A. Tempelman, Diederick E. Grobbee, Karine Scheuermaier, Willem D.F. Venter, Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch | This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 24 April 2022 | Published: 15 November 2022

About the author(s)

Irtiza S. Tahir, Julius Global Health, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Alinda G. Vos, Julius Global Health, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands; and, Ezintsha, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Johanna A.A. Damen, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Roos E. Barth, Department of Infectious Diseases, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Hugo A. Tempelman, Ndolvu Care Group, Groblersdal, South Africa
Diederick E. Grobbee, Julius Global Health, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Karine Scheuermaier, Julius Global Health, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands; and, School of Physiology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Willem D.F. Venter, Ezintsha, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Kerstin Klipstein-Grobusch, Julius Global Health, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands; and, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa


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Abstract

Background: Current cardiovascular risk assessment in people living with HIV is based on general risk assessment tools; however, whether these tools can be applied in sub-Saharan African populations has been questioned.

Objectives: The study aimed to assess cardiovascular risk classification of common cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models compared to the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) 2010 and 2016 models in people living with HIV.

Method: Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated by Framingham Cardiovascular and Heart Disease (FHS-CVD, FHS-CHD), Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) and D:A:D 2010 and 2016 risk prediction models for HIV-infected participants of the Ndlovu Cohort Study, Limpopo, rural South Africa. Participants were classified to be at low (< 10%), moderate (10% – 20%), or high-risk (> 20%) of CVD within 10 years for general CVD and five years for D:A:D models. Kappa statistics were used to determine agreement between CVD risk prediction models. Subgroup analysis was performed according to age.

Results: The analysis comprised 735 HIV-infected individuals, predominantly women (56.7%), average age 43.9 (8.8) years. The median predicted CVD risk for D:A:D 2010 and FHS-CVD was 4% and for ASCVD and FHS-CHD models, 3%. For the D:A:D 2016 risk prediction model, the figure was 5%. High 10-year CVD risk was predicted for 2.9%, 0.5%, 0.7%, 3.1% and 6.6% of the study participants by FHS-CVD, FHS-CHD, ASCVD, and D:A:D 2010 and 2016. Kappa statistics ranged from 0.34 for ASCVD to 0.60 for FHS-CVD as compared to the D:A:D 2010 risk prediction model.

Conclusion: Overall, predicted CVD risk is low in this population. Compared to D:A:D 2010, CVD risk estimated by the FHS-CVD model showed similar overall results for risk classification. With the exception of the D:A:D model, all other risk prediction models classified fewer people to be at high estimated CVD risk. Prospective studies are needed to develop and validate CVD risk algorithms in people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.


Keywords

cardiovascular disease risk; Framingham risk score; D:A:D risk score; Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score; people living with HIV; sub-Saharan Africa

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